Good weather for the 4th!



The forecast is on track for both today's warmth and tonight's rain.  The first drops will likely hold off until after midnight for most of us; however, in far southwestern Connecticut, there may be a few showers as early as 10 or 11 PM.  The latest model output suggests that 0.25"-0.5" is the likely range for most towns, but higher amounts are possible where a few downpours happen to cross the same spot.

--Mike Cameron


A touch warmer weather will come today, July 4th.  After a pleasantly cool morning, expect highs a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly into the mid/upper 80s inland and 70s at coastal beaches.  It will be mostly sunny in the morning, too, translating into a fantastic “beginning of the end” to our extended weekend.  Clouds will start to be more prevalent during the afternoon and evening as a system approaches from the west.  Clouds will thicken overnight, with rain coming after midnight.  With clouds overhead, the night will be milder: 60s will be the low.


Scattered showers Tuesday

Tuesday could be showery, especially during the morning.  What was once supposed to be a brush with clouds is now looking more and more like an opportunity for at least a little rain.  During the last day and a half, the models have been trending wetter with their solutions, until recently, when they have backed off again.   Sunday afternoon, there is general agreement that showers or periods of rain will start before dawn and last through midday.  Heavy downpours and a few rumbles of thunder will also be possible.  Given the current track of the storm, Connecticut could see anywhere from 0.25” to 1.0”+, with the higher totals likely focused on southern Connecticut.

With more recent runs, it appears only a few showers are possible Tuesday morning with very little rain accumulation.

Either way, the rain will exit during the afternoon and warm, humid weather with a partial sunshine will come during the late afternoon.  Highs will reach to near 80.

 Sunny and hot Wednesday

During the period of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the humidity will be increasing – big time.  And so will the heat.  In the wake of Tuesday’s rain, steamy air from the south will come our way unimpeded.  On Wednesday, this evolution will come with just partly sunny skies and hot conditions, with highs in the lower-90s.  High pressure will be briefly in control during the Wednesday, which will ensure uncomplicated sun, mugginess and heat.

Unsettled Thursday, Friday, and next weekend

We may be able to get some appreciable rain to some parts of the state starting Thursday.  The higher heat and humidity will be at work, feeding an incoming series of disturbances with moisture and heat to create the lift necessary to grow tall thunderheads.  Thursday will be showery, courtesy of a warm front moving through New England.  We think the front will lift north in time to see sun and heat during the afternoon, which will help fuel a few isolated thunderstorms.  As the front gets snagged and stalls over New England and a few areas of low pressure follow it, we will have chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Right now, it’s especially Saturday’s that bears watching.  Several model runs now have been showing fairly robust instability and a fairly potent storm approaching Saturday afternoon and evening, in combination with high heat and humidity.  These may be the coalescence of enough severe weather ingredients for strong thunderstorms.  Although the axis of instability will have shifted east Sunday, low pressure will still be overhead and will still cause scattered showers and a few boomers, too.

During this period, forecasting the low temperatures is following the humidity: lows will range from 67-72 – not the most ideal for good sleep.  High temperature forecasting will be more difficult because cloud cover will be determinative and is a bit difficult to nail down now.  Thursday and Friday should offer enough sunshine to bring highs to near 90 degrees; the predominance of clouds will likely hold Saturday and Sunday in the 80s.

Meteorologists Mike Cameron

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